Skip to main content

Brumadinho Dam Collapse Video Follow Up

I am posting two videos that I used to analyze the footage of the dam collapse of the Vale Córrego do Feijão Dam I in Brumadinho. These videos could help others who are trying to analyze the footage for useful information in assessing the collapse. The first video is a closeup slice sequence of the crest or ridge line (in 5 sections from left side of the dam at top to right side at the bottom) showing the initial moments of the failure. The downward progression of the crest line reveals that initial movement occurred just to the left of the drill rig with secondary movements along the crest to either side.


The second video shows the entire dam (unlike the video I included in the earlier post that focused on a closeup of the dam's right side where the critical sliding features were located). Circled are the visible areas of the dam where more than one separate instance of movement within the first second of the footage can be detected using extreme closeup analysis of pixels. There are other areas of movement as well, but these are either cloud shadows moving down the face of the dam or video pixelation effects from the source camera feed and/or file compression/conversion.

All apparent movements in dam features (crest, bench, toe, etc.) only occur a single time within the first second of footage other than the two circled areas at the crest and toe of the dam. There are also two cloud shadows (one to the left, one to the right) at the crest of the dam that are moving down the face at the moment of collapse. The two circled areas were discussed in my previous analysis as possibly being involved in the triggering event of the collapse. Conversely, the single instances of movement on the dam within the first second of footage are most likely pixelation or other video effects. I loop the first second at full speed 10 times to better show the dam movement vs. cloud shadows vs. pixelation and then I loop it 5 more times at 0.25x speed as well.


This all may seem like a minor detail but I've noted a number of credible sources that might be misinformed about the initial movement and collapse sequence. For example, the non-profit World Mine Tailings Failures states on its blog in an otherwise excellent analysis:
"Finally, we present an analysis of a series of Google Earth images over a period of six years by Frederico Lopes Freire, which shows increasing saturation from constant natural drainage, which was not being diverted or captured, and which flowed into and over the TSF. Freire notes a deformation in the upper left face of the dam where, in our view, the collapse initiated, based on hundreds of loops of our banner. The first indication is a large cloud of black dust right behind this deformation. Three small areas of black dust appeared in the lower right immediately after this first appearance of dust in the upper left. According to Dr. Rodríguez Pacheco, saturation is a key pre-condition for static liquefaction, with 80% being a critical level. 
The image below is the exact moment that the first crack appeared in the upper left of the top layer of the dam. This is the area where Freire’s interpretation of the Google Earth images shows increasing saturation. Simultaneously, a large circular area in the front of the lower dam cracks. This area is also emphasized in Freire’s analysis of his Google Earth images, which shows collapse of the main drain leading from the center top to the foot of the original starter dam. For the pre-failure period, Freire’s images show erosion all the way down the face. A 2017 periodic safety review shows massive erosion at and above the toe of the starter dam."
[emphasis mine]
As the videos I am posting here demonstrate, there were no initial cracks or "black dust" in the upper left area of the dam. There were in fact cumulus clouds overhead and these clouds cast shadows on the crest and face of the dam. It is unfortunate that these cloud shadows obscured some of the movement especially as they drifted in the same direction as the slide progressed (toward the viewer). It is also too bad that we don't have the original camera footage as some of the video pixelation effects that might be mistaken for slide movement are probably the result of the footage being converted and compressed for the television news broadcast.

Still, I hope the videos that I am posting here -- and which I had also used to complete my original analysis of the televised footage per the prior post -- can help others with an improved understanding of the slide movement in their assessments of the failure mechanisms involved in the collapse.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Permits and Real Due Diligence

One of the biggest traps of investing is the refrain "do your own due diligence" (DYODD). Frankly at its worst this can be a hollow and dangerous encouragement for inexperienced investors to take a cursory peak at the company's own propaganda -- news releases and investor presentations -- before plopping down good money on a bad speculation. Even worse is the false assurance that people can get by hearing it directly from the horse's mouth (talking to company management or its investor relations department). Actual, real due diligence starts by reading the company's financial statements and other regulatory disclosures (insider trading reports, technical reports, etc.). This can be hard and time-consuming. It requires you to know how to interpret financial and technical information. Sometimes though real due diligence is easy enough that just about anybody can do it, if they simply knew how. Since I'm a provocateur but also because I want to see markets be

Video Analysis of Vale Dam Collapse at Brumadinho

Below you will find annotated video analysis of the Vale Córrego do Feijão Dam I collapse at the iron ore mine near Brumadinho in Brazil. This is being done in an attempt to learn early lessons and identify takeaways. Close up in slow motion (0.50x and 0.25x speed) reveals initial slide movement, failure sequence and possible trigger. Movement is seen initially at a seepage point in the toe of the dam near a "groin" area (where a starter dyke reinforcement extends outward at the center of the dam .... left side in the video). The movement is possibly a gush of water being ejected at the seepage point due to a change in pore pressure indicating that mobilized shear stress had overcome shear resisting force and initiated sliding along a critical slip surface. Based on this and other indications, the collapse of the dam is possibly yet another case of static liquefaction triggered by progressive deformation and increase in pore pressure, not (necessarily) seismic activity o

Permits and Due Diligence -- Part 2

A few months ago I posted about a situation in Arizona USA where a junior exploration company apparently expected to receive drill permits in short order (a few months). Unfortunately for them and their shareholders, the project is located on unpatented mining claims in the Coronado National Forest managed by the U.S. Forest Service. I have already hinted where people could do research ("real due diligence") on the U.S. Forest Service review process, and I suspect many readers were able to figure out for themselves that the company in question is Barksdale Capital Corp. (TSX-V: BRO , OTCQB: BR KCF ). Now at long last I will follow up on a few of the issues contemplated in my initial post. There is of course much more to this and perhaps I'll find time in the future to post further thoughts. But first a quick comment about Barksdale Capital itself. I actually like both their key projects (Sunnyside and the adjacent San Antonio claim package they picked up recently) in te